NISSMAT Podcast: “West Asia – Geo-Strategic Analysis” (An Informative discussion by experts)

Namashkar to all our viewers. A very warm welcome to the NISSMAT podcast. I'm Pawan Jeet Ahluwalia and I shall be your moderator for today's conversation. NISSMAT was established in 1990 with a single enduring conviction that knowledge of security in all its dimensions must not remain locked inside institutions and boardrooms. It must reach every thinking citizen, every leader, every professional who shapes the world around them.

The podcast is an expression of that conviction. And today I'm privileged, truly privileged to be sitting with three of the most distinguished voices in the Indian security and strategic affairs. My first guest retired from the Indian Army as a major general bringing with him decades of operational experience strategic scholarship and an understanding of geopolitics that is both rare and invaluable. Major General L.P. Singh a very warm welcome to you, sir.

My second guest is equally distinguished, a soldier, a strategist and a remarkably clear analytical mind. Also a major general from the Indian Army, he brings both field experience and deep regional expertise to everything he analyzes. General Deepak Mehta is delighted I'm delighted to be here with you today. And joining us as well as a man at the very heart of NISSMAT, our president, Mr. C.

Pal Singh, a former Inspector General of Police, the man who raised the Rapid Action Force for the government of India, and the founder of the Internal Security Academy at Mount Abu. Mr. C. Pal Singh brings to the table a lifetime of service at the sharper stage of India's internal and national security. So, it's an honor to have you with us today.

West Asia is burning. The Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed. Oil, food, and fertilizer supply chains are under unprecedented stress. Iran and the United States are locked in a confrontation where both sides believe time is on their side, and that, as you will hear today, is perhaps the most dangerous belief of all. For India, this is not a distant crisis.

It is arriving at our shores, in our oil bills, our shipping routes, our rupee, and the lives of millions of our citizens working across the Gulf. So, let us begin. Stay with us. This is a conversation you will all want to hear to the very end. And if you find value in what we discuss today, please like this podcast and share it with everyone in your circles who cares about India's place in the world.

Let's first understand the geostrategic aspects related to West Asia. General S. V. P. Singh, sir, I hand the state to you.

Thank you, Pawan. Well, let's take it on straight away. Let's now look at the geopolitical and geostrategic environment. And I have always said there are centers of gravity in the world, and those centers of gravity today which dictate us, the West Asia is on fire. It's on a end of tinderbox.

Other center of gravity has been the Ukraine war, the Russian-Ukraine war where the entire NATO and the European Union is involved. And the third is in the East Asia Indo-Pacific, the Taiwan this thing, which is at the moment latent but can erupt very strongly. And there always signs for that to happen. Along with it, in this geopolitical geostrategic environment, is the National Security Strategy of December 2025 which America took out, in which they said the Western Hemisphere is its sphere of influence and interest. And it left vague the other areas, but latently it says it will not indulge much in Europe, latently I say, whereas giving a leeway to Russia that is Putin.

And Indo-Pacific, of course, we know that America is silent, but they can never do away without Taiwan. So, these are the centers of gravity which really dictate this thing. Now, in the geopolitical environment today, it is a geostrategic, it is a geo-economic, and I will say even technology, science and technology have come to play a very major role in all that. So, let's go specifically to where the action lies, and that is the US-Iran-Israel war, which has become a central pivot in the global strategy. It is reshaping the regional alliances, energy flows, which includes fertilizers, food, fuels, and which is dictating the economic stability worldwide.

Now, that is where the difference is coming in this war. An Iran war is a I would say a systemic shock post-Cold War World War, or even I would say post-Second World War, because it has had such tectonic shift in the world. Now, the shift has been dictated by Trump 2.0 administration which believes in regime disruptions, regime change policy of obtaining unconditional surrender from the adversaries. And here I would like to reflect a little on Kissinger's words. When the Iranian revolution took place, he had said Iranian revolution is an Islamic Islamist movement dedicated to overthrowing Westphalian system seeking to replace internal systems multi-city a multiplicity of states.

Now, this is what it implied. And Westphalian I you will say I will recall is 1648 with it said sovereign states, democracy was very prime in it. So, that is where this was a shift in the 1979 Iranian revolution. And Trump 2.0 has come with Operation Epic Fury appears to force Iran back into that Westphalian model or the framework aimed primarily at dissolving the cleric regime which is a hard rock to do. And America has learned it well in this war which is 60 plus days now.

Now, other side I have I have to say Iran on the contrary sees victory through its survival, through its resilience. So, what we talk of Iran is that it has got an axis of resistance. It is a theist theocratic state and that therein is its strength. So, if we look at this in West Asia, it really gives us the deep roots of what is dictating the fault lines in the Middle East and West Asia. Now, what is it which led to Iran becoming a pariah in the Western world?

Axis of evil with George Bush Jr. He had defined axis of evil along with North Korea. You know, Now, what is it? You see, this goes back to the Kuwait war 1990-1991 when Iraq had invaded Kuwait. America had gotten and that is where this Gulf countries felt with Iran being in the primacy because of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war where America and China both wanted the Iranian regime to be changed.

They could not achieve that. So, the Shia state which had come, a theocratic state, was perceived as a big threat. And America and this shakedoms, they came with an idea of providing America came with the idea of providing a security shield and thereby exists the military bases in this Gulf cooperation countries. Now, that also now in this geopolitical environment, geostrategic environment, has come under a big question mark. A big question mark because the United States could not really provide them the security shield.

And what the this Middle East countries, this West Asian countries, shakedoms had believed that it was oil in exchange of security. Oil being the penny owner, oil being the petrodollar. That is where in the petrodollar started playing a bigger role. Though it came in 1973. So, that is where the entire security shield of the Gulf countries has come under big threat.

Now, they are perceiving in this environment that perhaps it is not security for us. Actually, it is security for Israel because it is the Islamic angle versus the Christian civilization. And I recall on this the Huntington theory of the civilization, the war of civilizations. So, this is where a very big shift in the thinking of these this Gulf countries is coming about. So, we will see as we go along whether this basis will exist, how will realignments take place.

Now, this much for the West Asian part and Iran part. Now, let's look at it what is happening in the geo-political environment in the Ukraine war. Trump 2.0, Trump has come with a pro- Putin stance. Lebanonism, that is Ukraine surrenders the eastern oblast to Russia and thereby buys peace. Now, that's a very major chunk.

So, Ukraine is holding ground holding ground with support from the European powers, the current NATO powers. And herein the NATO and American relations have got frayed because of this Iranian war, primarily the Hormuz Strait, the opening of the Hormuz Strait where America has sought the support of the NATO countries, but they have stood their ground. The NATO is North Atlantic Treaty Organization and not the West Asian or the Arabian Sea or the Persian Gulf area. So, NATO has stood ground there. So, relations are afraid.

To me, it will remain as a temporary setback to this because I want to put in front there are the five eyes, the nine eyes, and the 14 eyes organization. This white Anglo-Saxon part of it will always stand by each other in case of any trouble at their end. So, Europe is afraid at the moment, and I would put European countries including NATO among the middle-level powers. The two prime powers being today USA and as well as China with Russia close runners-up back up with China. So, if that be so, these middle powers today, whatever they may do, you see the prime minister or prime minister said the middle powers has got a very big role in January in Switzerland.

He had addressed on this part, but no, middle powers cannot dictate the global politics, the global world power. They cannot do that. They don't have that strength, and we all know that. So, it is the big powers, and who are the big powers? The three countries which I named because they're the big ticket players in the armament world as well.

Which gives them the strength. It gives them the economic strength. Russia not counted as a very big economic power, but they have wielded their diplomacy very well, statecraft, that their oil has got them what they wanted, and so they survived and survived pretty well. Other is now the Indo-Pacific, the China factor. This is a prime power there which USA wants to challenge, and China is return counter challenging them.

And which is the which is the center of gravity there? Is Taiwan. Taiwan which the Chinese have said in the celebration year of 100 years of PLA, that is next year, 2027, Taiwan should be in their in their kitty. They should have annexed Taiwan. There's also that 100 years vision which Mao Zedong gave them in 1949 that China should be the, you know, number numero par, supreme par number one.

So, they've been working on that. And Taiwan is a big factor in this. For America, America has been calling this as the unconquerable aircraft carrier. So, they we have to stand by Taiwan because their interest also lies with South Korea and Japan. East Asia and Indo-Pacific gives America the power to counter China there.

But let us see if what changes have really taken place. I would cast back to 1996 when China was had attempted a blockade of Taiwan and Clinton was a president. He sent two aircraft carriers at that time. And China came back. They withdrew.

But today, if America sends two aircraft carriers, would China come back? Would China stop the blockade? My answer is no. So, that is the power gap which has closed between America and China. And in between, most important for us as India, is the South Asian subcontinent where we aim and we are the regional power, but we have a lot of ground to cover on that.

And it is South Asian environment which we have to India and its neighbors, we have to reorientate our policies with our neighbors. We have to overcome the Chinese factor. The Chinese factor being the pearl of neck necklace which they have laid round our neighbors which extends into some of the literal island states of the Indian Ocean as well. So, we have to overcome that and for that, I think our Atmanirbhar defense Atmanirbhar policies, primarily I would say economy and defense, have got a lot of major role to play. And what India has as an emerging power, our area of influence should be thus up to Central Asian Republics, should be the reach of the West Asian the Persian Gulf.

It should go beyond the Malacca Straits into the South China Sea, overlooking the Indo-Pacific. That is the changing global environment which is coming about. And here, when we said that when I say this, look, the Great Nicobar project which is coming about is clearly aimed at that and we are backing it up with our theaterization which is going to come. So, here I would stop having covered the largely the areas of influence and areas of interest. Thank you very much, Deepak.

May I ask you, there are certain strategic choke points in the Persian area. Now, like the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab-el-Mandeb area, the Suez Canal. Now, how can the war impact these three choke points? And if these three choke points are impacted, then about 40% of the oil flow into Asia gets impacted. What is your opinion on this?

Yes, I think a lot of talk is going on a lot of in the both print and electronic media on Hormuz where the Iranians are saying that we control Hormuz and Americans are trying to open it out. And the latest is that on about 2 days back, the Americans had tried to put naval ships to escort the cargo vessels. Only two vessels got out when the Iranians fired at them. Now, as far as these choke points are concerned, I'll go one by one. Firstly, Hormuz, we are fully aware of what is happening in the present environment.

Suez Canal, in the north of the Red Sea, Suez Canal have got very limited traffic ability because of the size. It's connected to the Red Sea as well as the Mediterranean. Now, what the Saudi Arabians have done is since their oil flow from the Gulf area stopped because of Hormuz, they have laid a pipeline from into the Red Sea. But, the output is only 9 million 9 million liter barrels per day, which is very limited. So, in case this pipeline is made active, in that case, there'll be a massive hold up of ships in the Mediterranean and very limited number of ships in the Red Sea.

Coming to Bab el-Mandeb, this again is being controlled by the proxies of Iran, the Houthis. Any infringement or forcible traffic through Bab el-Mandeb is going to be taken on by the Houthis. Now, what is the effect of this? You see, all the sea trade which is being affected very adversely is now moving from Europe to southern South Africa and then coming into the Indian Ocean. It takes about 55 days for it.

Whereas, if they the earlier they used to come through the Mediterranean, Suez Canal, Red Sea, and into the Indian Ocean, it used to take them 22 or 25 days. It's a very expensive thing. It is going to increase the cost of living and the inflation because of these choke points. Secondly, no insurance company is prepared to pay the money for the insurance for the vessels coming through either Suez Canal or Bab el-Mandeb or Hormuz because they do not want to lose million dollar worth of vessels which are floating in that area. So, these are very important choke points which are affecting the sea route trade very effectively very badly.

Imagine insurance has gone up, the traveling time has gone up, the cost of fuel for the ships has gone up. So, it is going to have a adverse effect all over the world in these three four choke points that we have. It's not only the shipping which is taking longer time. Even the for example, your flight to from Delhi to London which used to be an 8-hour flight is now an 11-hour plus flight. Yes.

So, you because of the detours that you got to be taking. Now, you see there is likely and that is my personal opinion because there is a large Indian diaspora working in the Gulf countries. And if the war continues in my opinion, there's likely to be a loss of jobs for the Indians. And when these Indians come back to India or for that matter of fact if the Sri Lankans go back to Sri Lanka or the Pakistanis go back to Pakistan their remittances are going to decrease and the ability to spend money is going to decrease also. Is it going to give a rise to further law and order situations?

You see, there's a point the point that you brought out with the diaspora which is working in West Asia. Besides they're sending a lot of money into India. Now, if this will dry up in case the businesses of West Asia stop, all these fellows come back. They're going to be have a fiscal problem as far as we are concerned. So, the safety and job say environment in West Asia is very important for us.

Yep. SBP sir, tell me something. When the rupee weakens because of all this, what is the impact on India? Well, it has it has a major impact. You see, because the rupee is now weakening because of external factors.

And it is definitely going to raise the cost of living in our country. It is going to lead to inflation. It is going to lead to a resource crunch. All that is going to be there and affect every aspect of our life, starting from transportation to vehicular cars to your hotels, hospitality, to our defense sector. So, everything is going to be affected and it cannot be helped.

So, but we have got certain resilience. For example, in the oil part of it, we have got the strategic petroleum reserve, which is supposed to be 74 75 days, but it has been taxed now because we have controlled the prices. The government has kept under control, under check. But for how long? And that how long has become a big question mark now with this Project Freedom being launched by Trump now.

There, because of this, the ceasefire, which was lasting for since about 13th April, 27 days, is got affected. So, India, which is a major importer of oil, we are going to get affected. We are also importing fertilizer there. So, we going to get affected. Our exports of foods and food items which we send to the these countries in the Gulf, that is going to get affected.

So, overall it is going to tax our economy. There is no doubt about that. I think in addition to that it was the impact of the Indians returning to India or the Indian diaspora returning to India. What do you see the impact of all this in India? major factor is that remittances which are coming from diaspora will be considerably reduced. They'll be very badly affected.

The remittances coming from the diaspora who are settled there in these countries. Then there is also export competitiveness which was there. That will get reduced considerably. Then there's a delayed in the European bond goods or the Europe bond goods the goods which have to go to Europe. Europe bond goods will definitely get delayed by this another point.

Second point is another point is that you have got certain sort of drone warfare going on almost. We have to put it up. We have to accelerate ourselves in this warfare which we have not. This is also going to be a great thinking going on about how to do. Then of course the Arabian Sea maritime security also will get affected.

Then protection of ports and refineries by us will have to do with the protection of ports and refineries by us. So, there are various aspects in which India will be affected. in addition to that I have a feeling that the China has acted in a very strategic manner. And I always say that any geostrategic has got a geostrategic effects or geostrategic ramifications cannot be segregated from geopolitical. And China acted very well as well geopolitical is concerned. Because what has happened is that China US action in Venezuela, China thought of it.

That US action in Venezuela and now West Asia were apparently undermining China in a way because investment in Venezuela for oil by China and also dependence for oil from West Asia by China was getting affected. China acted very quietly as they always do. Now, what they did was they started a get getting they started getting oil from Russia. Simultaneously, China played the financial war via the People's Bank of China. What happened is that China indicated that it was reviewing it was reviewing the liquidity of its 775 billion dollar holding in US Treasury bonds.

US Treasury bonds. So, China gave an indirect hit that we are going to review that. China informed that if this state of affairs continue and US missiles they hit any Iranian refinery she would then China would dump 100 billion dollars US bonds and they will affect 100 billion US dollar because then they will affect and spike each and every area in that area. So, they were threatening indirectly. So, I am of the view that China informed the international maritime organization also that the vessels which are carrying crude for China would be insured by her.

And they will ensure it is not done. In way I am trying to say is that any geopolitical ramifications must be considered. Same is in the case of India I have told you that India has got lot of problems to come with in fitness war continues. That USA as I mentioned a lot jumped into it without considering the capability of Iran. Without it they said that they are going to help their friend under any circumstance.

Israel is there they are going to their friend. They also thought USA in this case will show our superiority in this area. They did not think that they are going to have this prolonged confrontation which they always invariably wherever they jumped into like this they have gone into prolonged sort of you know war and all and creating problem not only for the world but it itself. There are human losses in America. American some of the American most of the Americans are against this.

My point is this is not a only confined to the areas. It's not only confined to the this area and that area. Of course that is very important but not confined. It's more of a political fallout of this. The political fallout is very important.

India has to consider the political fallout. In incidentally Pakistan tried to take advantage of the political fallout by saying that all right we'll negotiate. But what happened? Considering all these points of view I am of the view that America has jumped into this particular area and war without considering the ramifications it could have, without considering the economic impact it could have, without considering that how it is going to create problem for the world around. It is just a question of just at random will help Israel and we are going to help Israel, our friend and all and that sort of thing.

Ultimately, the radiation of no problem as I submitted last time also that as far as the uranium is concerned, they say you want 60% or so, you can reduce it to that. They were already negotiating. So, all these points are of major consideration today for the world because from Venezuela, it acted and affected China indirectly. Now, it is it going to affect and as I submitted in last, probably General Sisi said more than 40% of the oil of China is through this Hormuz. So, under these circumstances again, do you think China will sit quiet?

They had a very intelligent way. They started opening their negotiations with Russia. They started having a Who is going to stop China? Will you Do you think that China can be stopped like this that you overpower anything, you take over all the oil areas, you take over Iran, you take over this thing and I am of the view that it is going to have major geopolitical ramifications all over the world if this war continues. Thank you, sir.

But, May I May I add a few points here, Pawan? As far as the US is concerned, they had three very specific aims when they came in here. Firstly, it was a regime change. Secondly, it was to destroy Iran's nuclear capability and degrade Iran's missile capability which have been They have failed in all three of them. As far as Iran is concerned, Iran is still holding about 70% of the missiles and the drones which they have.

So, America now is in a fix. They have They have alienated all their allies, NATO. They are They are pulling out troops from Spain, Italy, and Germany. Which is Which is They were supposed to provide the protection to them. So, I think they have lost a lot in the geopolitical aspect by jumping into it for reasons.

We know the reasons what the reasons what Mr. Deepak Singh has very clearly brought out. First, they went to Venezuela for the oil. They Because China has invested a large amount of money in Venezuela. Correct.

Correct. Second was they came into West Asia to stop the oil flow over the 40% what Mr. Deepak Singh has said. 40% of the oil to China is flowing through West Asia. It will affect the economy very adversely. And it was primarily aimed not at Iran per se.

I take it was aimed at China for economic reasons in after as a competitive in the field of science and technology. So, they have also lost a lot in the bargain. Thank you, Deepak. You know, I just want to make a point here. The article of NATO which says that if one country is attacked, everybody would support it.

I think it's the article five of the thing. But, NATO is a defensive alliance. It is not an offensive alliance. And where Mr. Trump has gone wrong in asking NATO to sort of come in for an offensive situation, whereas NATO is purely a defensive organization.

Yes. aimed to sort of counter the Russian aggression into Europe. So, that was one point I wanted to make. The other is No, one more Pawan. As far as the NATO is concerned, Germany has now prepared to provide a minesweeper. But, on a provisional once the war stops.

The minesweeper So, you see now, you know, you can put conditions which should probably not be acceptable to Mr. Trump. But, I just want to make another point. You know, when you were talking of Mr. Trump looking at various other countries, you know, he looked at various, you know, he's looking elsewhere.

He also looked at Greenland. He also He's now also looking at Cuba. So, all these places are having a problem. But, General S.V.P. Singh, sir, I'm going to come back to you.

Can you please talk about some bilateral ties that India has with Israel, with Iran, and with the Arab states. How are they going to get impacted and affected by whatever is happening in West Asia today? it's a very good question Pawan which you're posing, and it was just in my mind. You see, when we say there's the impact on India, you would ask me the economic one there, but if you really look at it, India has to be in a balancing act. We are foreign policy, our national security policy hinges on balancing act. And why?

Because we are yet to be a power projector. We are yet to be a major armament exporter. That power is not within us. Economy is coming our way. So, once we get that, till that time it has to be balancing act.

So, let me first say about the United States, whatever that English may say, special strategic partnership, this, that, these are all very superficial words today. So, we have to interpret the permanent no permanent friends and no only permanent interest, which is a yesteryear's statement, is very true to practice today for India. Now, coming to Iran first in West Asia. You see, somewhere I feel that what imposition America did in their statesman or statecraft, we had stopped buying oil from Iran, which has been detrimental to us. Secondly, Chabahar Port also was possibly a dictate where the project for the last two budgets we have not allocated any amount.

Now, if I correlate this with our policy with Iran maybe civilization state and whatever anti JNK policies and Article 370 with which Iran practiced even the Shaheen Bagh and the CAA, it was Khomeini regime was anti-India in that stance. But, our stakes are much greater. And what are our stakes? That we must have close relations with Iran in the geopolitical and the geoeconomic field because we have also got that international law north-south trans-modal corridor, which takes us to Europe from there. It is through Iran.

It's a very important one. So, we can't lose sight of that. If our Chabahar Port the project would have been ongoing, perhaps we could have had an alternate route, possibly I'm saying, of getting oil from there through the rail route rail road route at some point of time. Now, these are the things because it gives us a underbelly to Afghanistan out there at the Chabahar Port. So, to that extent Iran is very important.

It is also very important when I look at it internal. We have got a very major Shia population and we are respecting and we call ourselves and we are as per our constitution a secular nation. We look after the interests of one and all. So, that is why over the years we have had policy of near neutrality with the Palestinian, with the Islamic world and including Iran. So, that interest should remain prime with us.

Now, let us now look at the other states which are there. I'd like to intervene here, Pawan, with your permission. What General Saheb said 100% correct. I'd only add Earlier also I had said, again I'm saying Where is the question of reduction of export competitiveness with other in fact strategic impact on India? Besides that it will accelerate drone warfare and our planning will have to change. effect.

Again, I said that there is a greater focus we have to pay on the middle on the missile defenses. Then I also said that maritime security in Arabian Sea will have to be improved. There are certain small at the moment looks like small advantages also to India. One advantage is that the multi-alignment diplomacy will start. We have been doing this thing, that thing, that thing.

It is a great thing. The multi-alignment diplomacy with whom you have to go, where is strength of China, how we are we have been somehow they're not going in thinking confrontation with China. So, it is a question of very intelligent way the multi-alignment diplomacy they have to think. Then growing alternative supplies growing alternative supplies and network we have to consider. Then we also feel that in a way we should have a much more stronger navy.

While the Pakistan fundamentals is different. It has a import is affected, all right. Still it is trying its best although heavily dependent on south Saudi Arabia and UAE for its financial support. Yet it is playing a sort of diplomacy where it wants the advantage of both the sides. That is wants advantage of USA, it wants advantage of China, it wants advantage of relation.

So this sort of multi-alignment diplomacy, I use the word, has to come in as well as the Absolutely. Absolutely. General S.V.P. Singh, we were talking of Can you just go back to looking at the impact of the GCC countries vis-a-vis India? Yes.

Now, you see over the years, particularly the last I say I would say two decades, India has really opened out with the Middle East countries. And there's a the Gulf the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. We have really opened up. I'll give you a few examples. We got special partnership with in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia today.

We have got that cooperation. We have with Qatar we have 25 years of LNG trade agreement with them. Now, for whatever has happened now, that political geopolitics might come into play, but yet we have got that relationship with them. Now, with the UAE, that emir had come very recently, and we have got the special strategic partnership again. So, when we see all this, these countries are very important very important for India to take forward our security environment, our relations in the Middle East and the West Asian area.

And so I would say okay that is very important. I've covered about the Shaba port which is really with the Iran. So these are the areas because you know we are also having the Islamic block angle as well as trade and commerce which has become very important. And Saudi Arabia has opened out considerably in their economic and foreign policy to open out to the world in the infrastructure development where India has got a good role to play. Now you had also asked about Israel.

Okay what about now is with Israel we have got key relationship is in the defense and security. You know the UAVs, the missiles that defense cooperation is very important. Electronic warfare, these are the items these are the big ticket items which are there. Our technology with them the critical and emerging technologies those agreements are there. For example, focuses on the semiconductors, quantum computing and biotechnology.

And the Prime Minister's recent visit which just happened to be just before the war broke out. You know we had also had some agriculture agreement with them you know. launch of the Indo India Israel innovation center for agriculture which has been a very important thing development. There also has been a labor mobility agreement you know. 50,000 additional Indian workers will be there in Israel for 5 years next 5 years. So that is all taking forward the Indo-Israel partnership. In the security environment specific also Israel has been very close closely involved with India and we are benefiting from that.

And it is a strategic force multiplier in the Israeli relationship. Please go on. Sorry, sir. You go on. One point I'd like to add that Pakistan role as a mediator at this point of time, General Saab, is absolutely fragile, as you know.

That is dependence on Saudi Arabia, UAE for finances. Also, it depends on China also. And it has all domestic problems also. Under the circumstances, still this war must come to an end. And you know Iran's 14 points, which has given to USA, it is also very, very important to think whether the USA will agree.

It says that you first demand is end war within 30 days. No question of ceasefire. Iran doesn't say ceasefire. No. Iran says end war within 30 days.

I mean, you imagine. Now, no question of ceasefire. Guarantee against USA and Israel future attacks on Iran. That guarantee should be given. That future then it says that probably end the naval blockade only the USA naval blockade.

You end the naval blockade. You are trying to have the naval blockade. And it says release frozen Iranian assets held abroad. Now, these are some of the very important points in those 14 points. Do you think USA will agree?

The question is if it doesn't agree, then where do we go to? What happens next? So, therefore, I have a feeling that we are standing, the world is standing on a razor's edge. In case USA behaves or tries to have some negotiation different thing. The way Trump is giving here the civilization will end, the other civilization will You see you have heard there's a book written by somebody recently and South Indian that conflict of civilization no civilization conflict was entirely different one civilization against other civilization the word used by Trump that is a conflict I'll end this civilization the civilization conflict is entirely different it was in the context of which civilization should come which not there have been civilization and there have been conflict but if you consider civilization in terms of Tagore when he has written an article on civilization and culture the culture is exactly the way the culture of negotiation the gesture of giving something lacking at the moment the USA so I am very apprehensive that in view of the Iranian points in view of the behavior of USA so far in view of fragility of the mediator that is Pakistan how this this war is going to end and what shape it will take I think at this point of time may I add may I add something out of the 14 points which have been given by Iran to US through Pakistan there are about four points which are workable which apparently would be coming under discussion one is the end of war within 30 days with no longer seizure ceasefire so that is one which possibly they will go in for discussion second point end of the naval blockade because Americans are also paying very heavily for the naval blockade because the ships are there the troops are there they require logistic support They require all sorts of support to be sustaining in the sea.

And it's a very expensive proposition. next point which could be workable is end the fighting in all fronts including Lebanon. The half of Lebanon the on the river has been totally devastated by Israel. So there could be a possibility of this coming to an for discussion. And then the next point which is workable reorganize of trans-regional security concern. That is the Hezbollah's, the Houthis, the I Islamic Republic, the Islamic All these These four five points which may be discussed and may be worked out.

Other points is going to be difficult and going to take a very long time for him to fructify. Can we jump back into what China and Russia are feeling the impact of the West Asian crisis? I think the Can I say a few words on Russia because I talked about Mr. Sibal has very elaborately brought out the problem of the aspect related to China. As far as Russia's concerned, Russia is also showing interest in West Asia.

They want to put the foot in there. They have accepted or they have proposed that the 400 kg of nuclear stuff which is lying they could take it on. Russia has put a checkmate on Israel and US forces. Over a period of time, they have put about four regiments of S-500 air defense systems. This S-500 air defense system is a very, very important air defense system.

The vertical range of the missile is 200 km. These they could These missiles could attack the communication, the navigation, satellites, which are being used by the Americans. So, as a matter this has given a sort of a, you know, the air dominance which Israel and America had, that is being condoned to quite an extent by this S-500 which has come into being. They have Russia and Iran, they also have a strategic build-up, strategic arrangement. So, Russia will definitely support Iran in times to come as they've done in the case of S-500.

And there may be many more such military equipment which is coming in from Russia. So, Russia wants to put their put their foot into West Asia also. You see, the main point is that the leverage at the moment as far as China is concerned, it is in the hands of China at this point of time. First of all, the China says that it's as I earlier mentioned also that the 7775 billion dollars of USA treasury and bonds will be liquidated. It will be taken away.

It'll very, very great financial impact going to be on point on USA. Other point is, which is very, very important, is that why the Iran says that if you touch my crude oil tanker, crude oil tanker, that we violation. They try to mark about crude oil tanker. He's not asking for the refined oil. If you touch the crude oil tanker, it will be again.

So, there are very difficult points for negotiation. Of course, if any diplomacy or diplomatic solution has to come into you, I'm sure America will try to appreciate the concern and the threat both of China. And once it satisfies China to some extent, probably some solution may be found out. Okay, now let me just come to the other question. Now, Iran thinks that it has time, US thinks that it has time.

What does it imply? Okay, should I take it on, Pawan? Yes, please go ahead, sir. Okay, you see, this conceptually the strategy is can neither side feels the urgency for a compromise and they believe in a longer status quo. That is basically the crux of it, time and clock in whose hand and in whose side it is.

The US clock, if I may say, is to cause systemic degradation. Time as a tool to apply maximum pressure and as well as attrition on Iran, which is happening. It has happened physically on their military, on the infrastructure, civil economic, and now it is also doing economically. So, that is why the naval blockade is there, which is causing lot of difficulties for Iran the on the economy. So, the clock is ticking in Iran's internal situation in this case.

The internal collapse which could take place because economy is getting weakened. On the other side, what is Iran's posture? It is its strategic patience in this clock and to exhaust American will by targeting global energy. Now, they are also targeting global energy. The world will put pressure on America.

That is where it is using clock. Using its proxies which it continues to despite all the efforts that axis of resistance. In that, Yemen has a major role in the Red Sea. Hezbollah still continues to be a thorn on the side of Israel. And so, it is raising indirectly the cost of war for America.

And by doing so, it is not only the oil which is affecting Americans, it is also the inflation which is causing and Iranians in their strategy also worked out. Okay. Trump and Americans are biding time, the Republicans for the midterm November elections. So, for them, this clock to my thinking is the suits Iran in what they are doing. That's why the blockade drill, the energy security, the oil prices, the inflation, they are there.

And what has Iran done very recently? It has targeted UAE, that Fujairah oil fields. What it has done? It has gone to the other shore of the Hormuz Strait onto the UAE, you know, and shown its dominance there, which is a geographical expansion of the war within the Persian Gulf. So, if we see this clock and time is the one which neither side is accepting to soften their stand.

What can soften their stand is yes, if America, which they tried to do and if it is true that they are two destroyers ships tried to enter Hormuz Strait. Till when they went, when they came back is not known. But if they can succeed in some sort of demining that area then of course that the whole war takes a tilt in favor of America. So those are the stakes in the clock and the time factor. You know, there was a report today which said that the Iranians, the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards had spread the rumors that they had attacked the US ships.

Yes. The Iranian president and the foreign affairs minister said no. So there is an internal tussle also that is going on between the IRGC and the political arm of Iran. The between the government of Iran and the military of Iran today. So they are also having a conflict amongst themselves.

So there How it One point is there. But this was what they depended upon. USA when they started they say they'll create this conflict and all and they'll create problem for that and they'll bring Pahlavi and all and there's no problem. But so far so far there has been a smooth functioning. I think this has been a little bit of maybe but I think there's not major conflict.

My my only point sir General Sahib is which I like today that other Middle East countries are they're very important message they are conveying. That we are ready. We are ready to be defended, you defend us, everything and say but don't ask us to get into war. The US, okay, we are in diplomacy there. Okay, diplomacy there.

Diversified partnership with us. Okay, the but self-defense. No, US should support us. We are not going to get into the war. That is another important point conveyed with these countries to the USA.

So, this is very, very interesting phenomena coming in that as far as Iran is concerned, it is still holding on to its terms and conditions. USA is threatening to wipe off the civilization sometime again coming back to something. The other countries which are dependent to some extent where the basis of USA is there, they say, "All right, you defend us is all right, but don't bring us into this war." So, I mean, the entire thing is a sort of, you know, hot pot. What I am trying to emphasize is, that ultimately, even, you know, the America, the US president denied that I will not go by the Senate.

If there is some vote against me, I will not go by that. Then he is quoted Obama, that Obama did this thing and that thing. So, he is also threatening the other parties that I am not bothered about the Democrats if they say this thing and that thing. So, the entire situation is in a very, very, difficult situation and it is so much intertwined that I think, General Sahib, what is your view of what is going on? See, after all No, this question which Pawan had raised regarding to the time clock endurance and the what do the people feel?

I feel, you know, there is one side which is saying endurance to the Americans are talking of They want to exhaust Iran militarily, economically and also affect the morale of the people of Iran. The other side they said it give them more time for carrying out mobilization allies to enter which none of the allies have entered till now. And it may bring in international outrage and shift the opinion towards this war. So it's it's you know both ways. They both are looking towards this end.

One is doing this and second is you know bash on. So it's a dangerous game. It's a very dangerous game. Let's move on to the last question for the podcast today. Do you think Mr.

Trump will visit China in the second half of May? Yes. SVP Singh, sir, your comments on this. Well, at this stage I think both the countries are needing themselves. And all their bravado talk is a superficial thing.

I think the back door channels will be working. And we will see Trump there in mid-May which is planned to be there. Now, why Trump wants to go there is he would like to check on China about Taiwan. You see? And it could also become Taiwan China doesn't do anything in exchange of what China is saying they don't do anything in Iran.

So maybe that could be a very important factor in bringing about cessation of hostilities and this conflict with Iran. It it is a very major point. It's a point of conjecture. But I feel so that may come about. Secondly is the trade part of it.

You know trade is very important. This the rare earth from China, the semiconductors from America, all these things, the investments which are there, you know, US investment, American companies they provide capital, expertise and global integration which China is looking forward to. America also wants to see the stability of its dollar. Now, what has happened? The the Iranian oil supplies has compromised America's dollar supremacy.

They're already threatened by the BRICS. So, de-dollarization is there. Maybe between the two of them they arrive at a balance. Iran oil supply comes in yuan, but the rest of it BRICS take it easy along with India and Russia. That is where these I the internal agreements are likely to come.

So, I I have another feeling that in addition to what you are saying very elaborately, I think these are very important point, but ultimately they have to consider the choke points in the area that Hormuz. The the these choke points are very important, you know. It is a question of in the Hormuz area whether these choke points fall in favor in favor of absolutely fall in favor of Iran. And how they're going to have this sort of open of these choke points. Then there's also a sort of great power rivalry also because China and Russia are going to a little bit one side and there's a sort of power rivalry with America.

So, whether they get if they do not get at this stage a help or go by negotiation or get at least I some idea from China, I think this can be a very prolonged sort of war. They have to get some sort of they to give some satisfaction to China. You will find that in ultimate solution when if at all America negotiates or visits China, it will give it some point because it's under great pressure financially from China. Okay. Deepak Firstly Deepak, can I ask you What is your opinion?

Will the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping take place half of May? I think Trump is going to ask Xi for using his leverage for opening the Hormuz Canal straight because China is most affected by the oil flow to the through the He may quietly ask Xi to do immediate quietly, not in public, quietly with Iran to stop this war. China may ask a guarantee for the flow of oil through Hormuz by from Trump. So, these three, four things and as far as the Taiwan is concerned, yes. that is one. Now, the BRICS BRIC conference now is the deal or the dollarization which it takes place.

If BRICS starts trading in their own currency, then Trump is in very big trouble. They will. There is no option. The Russians will not allow anything The Chinese may have their own interest and their interest lies in the fact that the trade must take place in yuan. Yes.

The Russians are hell-bent on making sure that the shift from Swift does take place. India is balancing both the sides out because it is trying to be neutral at this point of time. Agreed. And all in all, in my opinion, BRICS is not going to sort of let go because this is the leverage that they have over the United States. Yes, with the elections in November, yes.

They cannot allow their leverage to diminish. Now, with these Now, with these things, if you have any closing remarks, we'll just go around once so that we close the conversation for today. Deepak, I'll start with you. Closing remarks. Yeah, the point is that there has to be some sort of understanding between Iran and US to open the Strait of Hormuz and let the oil flow.

What America and US is doing by blockade and you know, capturing ships and Trump himself has said, "Our navy is like pirates." This should stop. It is against international law. Unfortunately, no country has ever raised a point against US for what they are doing. Because of the trade factor.

I think the only way is that some sort of a mediation Pakistan is not a mediator. It's just a facilitator. They have to get some mediator. Pakistan is doing because of Trump's family businesses in Pakistan. So, I feel that this is my private war system.

Sibal sir, your comments on whether the I agree. Between Xi Jinping and Mr. Trump will take place. I have a feeling that there's no not going to be end of the war. There will middle path something will come out.

What middle path is going to be that first of all, the naval blockade will be stopped. Whether Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi Jinping will meet in the second half of May. Oh, I have a feeling General Singh that ultimately the inclination and the point referred by China and Russia will have a impact on USA and it will come to the negotiation table.

And similarly, the Islamic countries maybe Shias or maybe Sunnis, what they say to Iran, they will have some moderating some sort of moderate effect on them. And ultimately, they'll come, but I don't find my assessment in the near future. In this month of 15th May, I want to this thing that this is not going to do that. Talks may go on for a month more or so, but if you think that it's going to just end by 15th May, well, I have I'm I'm I have my doubts. This is my conclusion.

General S.V. P. Singh, your closing comments. Yes, Pawan, a straight answer to your question, the meeting 15th 16th May to me is on. Trump will go.

He's very keen to go. He's been wanting to go to China. He wants trade with them. That is his That is his forte. He wants a trade deal.

He wants to get his technology exported to China, which China needs. Then now, what has happened is Hormuz, he's seeking China as the Hormuz guarantor, I would say. You know, he's even asking China to come with the Navy there. See, he's he's he's in a state of desperation. So, Trump will go there.

And for in China's interest, what it looks forward is I've said AI, semiconductors. Importantly is the tariffs. 145% tariffs imposed on China. He's been dilly-dallying on that, Trump. And China is going to extract that pound of flesh from America. Also, the sanctions which America has imposed on China, he will ask for the Xi Jinping.

So, it's not going to be a game of chessboard. It's going to be a game of domination, I feel, by Xi Jinping on Trump. And that is my point of view. It is something like when Putin visited Alaska in all that fanfare, his arrival and departure both, the body language was that Trump had been Trumped. And that came out very true.

So, this time it is going to be Xi Jinping. It's going to be a pink. The ball will be in Trump's court and he will play the Xi Jinping game. Trump thing should stop. Trump thing should stop.

Okay, sir. On that note, we come to the close of today's conversation. I want to express my deepest gratitude to our three distinguished guests, Major General S.P. Singh, General Deepak Mehta, and Mr. Shipal Singh, for giving us generously of their time, experience, and their formidable intellect today.

Between them, they carry decades of service to this nation on the battlefield, in the corridors of security planning, and in the institutions that they train the next generation of India's defenders and thinkers. To have all three of them in one conversation is something our listeners should recognize as genuinely rare. What stays with me from today's discussion is this, the crisis in West Asia is not simply a regional conflict. It is a stress test for the entire global order, for the rules of trade, of difference, of diplomacy. And for India, by virtue of its geography, its growing economy, and its rising station on the world stage, India cannot afford to be a spectator.

Correct. That is at its heart what NISSMAT does what it does. As the moderator of this institution and the chairman, I can tell you that every seminar every webinar, every podcast we produce is driven by one question. Are we equipping our citizens, our professionals, and our leaders with the tools to think clearly in an increasingly complicated world? Today, I believe we have done exactly that.

In this confirmation in conversation If this conversation has informed you, challenged you, or simply given you a clearer window into a world that affects us all, please like this episode and share it on WhatsApp, on LinkedIn, and wherever you connect with people who think and care. Every share takes this conversation further than we can take it alone. Subscribe to the NISSMAT podcast so you never miss an episode. Keep bringing you the voices, the rigor, and the statecraft that these extraordinary times demand. Until next time, I'm Pawan Jeet Ahluwalia signing off on behalf of NISSMAT and our distinguished panel.

Stay informed, stay engaged, and above all, stay secure. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Thanks, Pawan.

Thanks. Thanks.