Terrorism in Manipur I Manipur Violence I Manipur tribes I Manipur Security I NISSMAT I Interviews

What this session covered

In this session the host interviewed a single guest, a researcher on conflict and security in South Asia, on the violence that has engulfed Manipur. The speaker traced the crisis to arrangements made when Manipur joined the Indian Union: the Meitei community lost the tribal status it had held under British administration, leaving its land rights confined to the valley, roughly a tenth of the state, while the hill areas remained reserved for the recognised tribes. Population growth turned that imbalance into acute pressure on valley land and revived the Meitei demand for Scheduled Tribe status, which the Kuki and Naga communities resist. A High Court order earlier in the year directing the state government to take a decision on the question — an order the speaker noted the Supreme Court had criticised in strong terms — brought matters to a head.

The speaker's central contention was that this is a political crisis rather than a security one. Insurgency had been brought down to seven insurgency-related fatalities in 2022, against 134 already in the current year. The speaker argued that the state's political leadership, and the chief minister in particular, had inflamed tensions, alleged state support for the violent reaction that followed, and contended that the conflict had been deliberately communalised, including attempts to frame it in Hindu–Christian terms. Armouries of the state forces were looted of very large quantities of sophisticated weapons and ammunition, and the two communities have since undergone a near-complete ethnic and administrative separation, with barricaded zones policed by central forces. Civil-society organisations once instrumental in peacemaking, the speaker said, had themselves become partisan, and every attempt at dialogue was being sabotaged.

On the cross-border dimension, the speaker rejected claims that migration from Myanmar since the 2021 coup amounted to a demographic transformation of the state, argued that the principal narcotics problem is smuggling from across the border — increasingly of synthetic drugs — rather than the limited poppy cultivation within Manipur, and saw a flow of Chinese-made weaponry from Myanmar but no clear evidence of active Chinese sponsorship. Looking ahead, the speaker foresaw no resolution in the foreseeable future: the realistic aim is to end the violence and restore minimal trust, perhaps through a mixed administration acceptable to both communities, while the underlying land and status questions could not, in the speaker's assessment, even be addressed for the next twenty years. The session closed with a warning that instability in Manipur, left unchecked, would spread to neighbouring states of the Northeast.

Key points raised

• The speaker located the roots of the violence in post-Independence land arrangements that confined the Meitei community to the valley while reserving the hill areas for recognised tribes, with the Meitei demand for Scheduled Tribe status resisted by the Kuki and Naga communities.
• The speaker characterised the crisis as political rather than security-driven, arguing the state's leadership had inflamed and communalised the conflict, and contrasted seven insurgency-related fatalities in 2022 with 134 already in the current year.
• State armouries were looted of very large quantities of weapons and ammunition, and the speaker described a near-complete ethnic and administrative separation of the two communities, with barricaded zones policed by central forces.
• The speaker rejected claims of a demographic transformation from post-coup migration out of Myanmar, and argued the principal narcotics problem is cross-border smuggling, increasingly of synthetic drugs, rather than poppy cultivation within the state.
• On China, the speaker saw Chinese-made weapons reaching Manipur through Myanmar's markets but no clear evidence of active Chinese sponsorship.
• The speaker foresaw no early resolution, suggesting the underlying land and status questions could not be addressed for the next twenty years, and warned that instability in Manipur would spread to neighbouring states of the Northeast.