Taiwan – The New Cauldron, its Strategic Importance & Implications

Okay. Hello, good evening everyone. This is the president. I extend every moment hearty welcome to all the delegates, particular to our eminent speaker. NISSMAT has been conducting webinars and interactive sessions for the last about two years, and in this process I'd like to submit that when we conduct a webinar we normally have two speakers. For the interactive session we have only one speaker. An interactive session is addressed by one speaker who is proficient in his subject, and he interacts with these delegates and the time is devoted for intellection.

I like to go further to say a few words about NISSMAT. This was started in 1990, about three decades back. We started training courses in safety, security, applied technology and management. With the passage of time NISSMAT has become a think tank, an organization which has association of more than 85 scholars, and we conduct webinars, seminars, training online and others. NISSMAT has been divided by us with the three-four segments. First is this with four hours, where we conduct webinars, interactive sessions, seminars, awards functions. The second is network education, online training, and third is NISSMAT Enterprises where we have audits, surveys and international relationships. And the last is a social forum, that is a NISSMAT Foundation, that is some or the other to inculcate the society at large the need and importance of law and order, and that would be introduced by us with the passage of time so that all the resident welfare, investigation etc. are addressed by us and are made to learn about what is happening on the line out of sight.

After having spoken these few words about NISSMAT, I like to say a few words about General Mehta, who is a moderator of this session. General Mehta belongs to the third generation, and he has seen action on the front in northern, in the J&K, and was wounded also. He is a prominent soldier cum scholar. People value his views and we have associated with us for the purpose of getting his views and getting his knowledge about our NISSMAT webinars and interactive session, as well as for our enterprise.

Having introduced both the subject and this one as well, I like to say a few words on the subject as such. That is, the subject introduction is the new cauldron, that is Taiwan the new cauldron, its strategic importance and implications. Taiwan is officially known as Republic of China, is an island separated from China by Taiwan waterline. It has its own democratically elected government, having approximate population about 23 millions. However, the People's Republic of China, that is the Peking, views this island as a running game and wants to eventually unify Taiwan with the mainland.

The recent visit of Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, to Taiwan created a big commotion. The visit evoked a strong Chinese response. The Chinese foreign ministry condemned this visit. It stated that it can cause serious damage to peace and stability not only in Taiwan Straits but also in the region. As such, China initiated even some military operations and exercises around Taiwan and sparked off air and sea drills nearby Taiwan, which raise heckles and serious concerns all over the globe. That is, the possibility of war in this area could affect the entire world security and has the global community.

Besides the security concern, the global economic concern was also the constitution. China has a significant position in the world economy, both in imports and exports. Further, if the conflict some other breaks out and if sanctions are imposed on China by US as a retaliatory media, this can damage the international finances, because the flow of US dollar would be adversely effective. As well as the Indian economy is concerned, Taiwan is perhaps the biggest manufacturer of semiconductors and electronics, and India depends on the semiconductor entirely out for Musa, that is the Taiwan. The world is still trying at this center to revive the economy after Ukraine-Russian crisis, and other crisis-like situation in Taiwan shall seriously impact the industries as well as the security climate in the area.

In a meeting of Association of Southeast Asian Nations something back, the Cambodian foreign minister called for maximum restraint and warned that army drills around Taiwan could lead to miscalculation and serious confrontation in the region. In fact, five of Chinese missiles fired in an exercise landed in the main waters belonging to Japan economic zone. This probably also was meant to convey a message to Japan and warned about that it should not interfere in China's internal affairs. Internal affairs means between China mainland and Taiwan, take a citizen term affair. The South Korean president even did not beat Pelosi when she was ensured. It was a fear complex from the Chinese reaction.

This war of words, that is statement by US President in the Quad summit recently in Tokyo, he suggested that any attempt by China to invade Taiwan would attract American military intervention. This angered China. This war of words can create a serious security threat in the region. I would like to say that Taiwan at the moment is sitting on an explosive which, if and when ignited, shall affect the number of countries both strategically and economically. With these words I would like to pass on the session to the moderator of today's session, General Deepak Mehta.

Thank you, sir. Good evening everybody. Before I ask the eminent speaker to take on the subject, a few words about the president and the chairperson of NISSMAT. Mr C Paul Singh is the president of NISSMAT. As he mentioned earlier, he joined the central police service in 1962. He underwent the initial training at the Central Police Training College at Mount Abu in Rajasthan. Subsequently he joined the prestigious National Police Academy at Hyderabad, where he completed the advanced police course. He has served on a number of senior police appointments in number of states in India. He was made responsible to raise a new police force, that's the Rapid Action Force, to curb and take action against the communal riots. He was the first chief of this elite force.

In recognition to his outstanding performance during his service, he was decorated with a number of awards, there being the President's Police Medal for the distinguished service, the Indian Police Medal for meritorious service, the Police Special Duty Medal with bar. Then he's got a twice sinner medal by the army and the number of committee rewards. Thereafter, after retirement, he was conferred with the prestigious award, the Security Personality of the Year, by the President of India in the global security conference. Presently he's the advisor, Asian Professional Security Association India chapter, is the honorary director general of the Central Association of the Private Security Industry, the CAPSI, Central Association of the Private Security Industry India, and Association of the Private Detective Investigators India.

A few words about the chairperson, Captain Pawanjit Ahluwalia. Pawanjit was commissioned into the elite Parachute Regiment of the Indian Army. He took quality retirement very early in his service and ventured into the business world in an unknown area. As a businessman he doesn't forthright his words when it comes to actual words. He is an inspiring leader and carries his team along with him. I can talk for him on our lighter vein during the commando course of your buddies, and has found totally focused on the course. He is adept to creating alliances. He has created a business group under the name of Ahluwalia Holdings Private Limited, which has number of offices in multiple places both in India and abroad. He was the president of the former chair and the former chairman of the Council of International Investigations USA, is an awardee of the Thompson award and also Coteria award.

For his coming down to the speaker, Major General SVP Singh. Major General SVP Singh is an alumni of the prestigious last year Indian Military College Dehradun, the National Defence Academy, the Indian Military Academy, and is commissioned into the Regiment of Artillery in December 1970. He is a veteran of 1971 Indo-Pakistan war. He has close to four years of experience in key leadership roles at both conceptual and the directional level in the military operations. He held the coveted appointments of the command staff in active and inactive combat areas. He had attended the courses at the National Defence College, the College of Defence Management and the Defence Services Staff College. His staff appointments encompass both general staff, administration and logistics in J&K and the northeast. He has commanded his regiment in Punjab during the peak of insurgency, has commanded brigade in a very big military area, and as a major general he was looking after the complete artillery in a command zone. Besides that, he was also the additional director general of the artillery at the army headquarters.

He has been to the faculty of the College of Defence Management in their field of human resource management and the Army War College. He attended a number of courses. He has done the courses advanced management programs in strategic management at the MDI, that's independent director course, the media communication for the Indian Institute of Mass Communication, and disaster management from the National Institute of Disaster Management. He is a member of the Manohar Parrikar Institute of the Defence Studies Analysis and the United Services Institution of India. He is a recipient of the Vishisht Seva Medal for his distinguished service in 1999. He is a frequent person on the TV on matters military. Request General to carry on please.

At the outset I must thank team NISSMAT, Shri C Paul Singh, Captain Pawanjit Ahluwalia and Major General Deepak Mehta, and in particular General Mehta, you have been very kind in the words which you have spoken, and I acknowledge in humility. I also wish the delegates who are participating in this session good evening, good morning, good afternoon from whichever place you are.

So the subject of my talk: Taiwan the new cauldron, and what its strategic implications and importance are. You see, few geopolitical contests are as asymmetric as between China and Taiwan as they are. China commands an overbearing demographic, industrial, economic and military domination over its opponent. So it is more a story of David and Goliath. Taiwan's future has profound strategic implications for the Asia-Pacific region. For China, the reunification of Taiwan is a matter of supreme national interest for which China must be prepared to fight at any cost. However, most Taiwanese do not want to become a part of a China which is ruled by the Communist Party.

The strategic importance of Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits is in its maritime trade, the energy needs which it meets through trade, and the connectivity. It is the gateway for the United States to Korea, to Japan through Taiwan Straits, East China Sea and the Sea of Japan, and so it is the pivot for China in the first island chain of the countries in Southeast Asia which Beijing considers. You see, it is the story of South China Sea basically, and Beijing considers it as its fiefdom and believes in denial of the global commons by violation of the law of the seas. And how it is doing so is because it takes advantage that the United States failed to join the UN conference on law of seas. So that is its justification.

So what it implies is that whoever controls Taiwan and Taiwan Straits can shape the geopolitical landscape of the Asia-Pacific region. With the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war and activation of Europe and the NATO, Taiwan has emerged as the second center of gravity in the world, a cauldron in making which may define the direction of the new world order. And when I say this, the direction of the new world order, it is the emerging China today, the second largest economic power, the second largest military power, and till this moment the largest population. And it feels very disappointed that India will be overtaking them in population, because population is a very major resource for great and big powers.

So Taiwan Strait in the present context remains a flash point, and a very dangerous one. Tensions have been on the rise again, as mentioned by Shri C Paul Singh, is the visit of the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. You know, perhaps Nancy Pelosi visit could be compared with its dangers compounded to the Archduke Franz Ferdinand who was assassinated in 1914 in Sarajevo, and he was advised not to go there. He was belonging to the Austro-Hungary empire and he was a crown prince. So Pelosi visit had dangers as inherent as her. Maybe she is the strong person, for what conviction she undertook this sojourn.

So it is to argue that the United States in the present context of history as well as the future world cannot afford to lose Taiwan. It will continue to do its uttermost to defend Taiwan in the context of increasing competition and rivalry with China. On the other hand, China is determined to absorb Taiwan and make South China Sea a Chinese lake, and carve out a vast economic empire across the global south to begin with. What about India in the present context of the world arena? I would say we are the fulcrum. On the one side is the United States and the West, and on the other side is Russia and China. It's a balancing act which we have to do, and in relation to Taiwan, India has to think hard to dehydrate India-Taiwan and India-China.

So as I go along, I would like to cover, or I'll be covering firstly the brief historical perspective, why it is where we are today, and then I will come on to the strategic implications, which I will be covering a little later with the help of maps. And then it is the watershed moment of the current times, the Pelosi visit here, what it has done, and it will merge into the military angle, what all is there in the theater there and what could happen for the future. And lastly I will touch the contours which are emerging in the Indo-Taiwanese relations.

So firstly on the historical perspective. You see, Taiwan at one time was called the muddied waters by one of its emperors in China. But its history China traces it to 380, that it's from the Fujian province, some of its people had gone there. But then we come closer to the middle of the 17th century, when the Dutch had come there. They ruled for about 43 years, and then they were thrown out by the Qing empire, the Manchus, and then Manchus ruled till 1895, till they were defeated by the Japanese, and the Japanese ruled Taiwan up to 1945, that is the end of Second World War.

Now I want to mention here in the historical perspective the role played by the Republic of China at that time, which was formed in 1911-1912 by Dr Sun Yat-sen and taken over by Chiang Kai-shek. They supported, they were the hammer and the anvil for the allied forces in the Pacific. So China had played a very important role for the United States and the allies in the Pacific. When the United Nations was formed in 1945, I would like to tell you that Franklin Roosevelt gave number four priority for Republic of China to be a member of the United Nations. France was number five, because of its role.

So after the war, till 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek got defeated and fled to Taiwan after the civil war, when he went to Taiwan the Americans had realized that there are two poles now, the communist and the western world. So they felt Taiwan, as MacArthur called it, the unsinkable carrier, will serve their purpose as a strategic node. No doubt it had played a role in Second World War also. So that is the American interest. In 1961 Chiang Kai-shek had dreams of annexing back the mainland, he called it the mainland, and he had a very strong army and he was dependent upon United States to support him for that invasion. But in 1961 John Kennedy, he gave a simple message: forget this. And hereafter, till 1979, you see, or till Chiang Kai-shek was there, he dropped the idea of his army and he went to create sea and air resources and power on the lines of island nations Great Britain and Japan.

1971 and 72, actually 72 and 1971, when China got admitted into the United Nations in October, and then they marked the landmark years. Thereafter 1972, 79 and 82 were the three communiques, joint communiques between America and China, which had a bearing. And in 1979, under Jimmy Carter, Taiwan was de-recognized and America gave recognition to China, which had joined the event. So this was the relation where you can say America has had some shifting sand dune like stance over Taiwan. So this is where we came to, and that is why today Taiwan remains a major bone of contention, where China says that they have to reunite, and Taiwan, which had a dream at one time of getting back the mainland, they dropped it.

But I would like to tell here, the national aims of the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China, which is Taiwan, are in convergence on many issues, and first of all it is on the national boundaries. Even Republic of China feels that Tibet, right after Afghanistan, is part of China nation. So we must keep this in mind because it has strategic implications.

So from here on I get on to my first slide, where I will start covering the strategic implications of Taiwan. Yes, next slide. Next. So you see, the Taiwan Straits which are there in front, it explains to you what I said, the South China Sea, the importance and where it leads to. So China on the left, separated between Taiwan and China, the separation is 100 miles, wearing say about 160, maximum 180 kilometers. So that is it, and Taiwan is about 36,000 square kilometers, a small tiny nation, an island nation surrounded out here by five nations of Southeast Asia. Next slide.

So this is what Taiwan is. The five nations of Southeast Asia, they are the price which China seeks in South China Sea. Now when I'm showing this map I would like to call your attention that it is surrounded by sea, being an island nation: East China Sea on the northeast, the Pacific on its west, the Luzon Straits in the south, and the Sea of Philippines also, then South China Sea. If you see the map, Chungyang Shanmo, that is the mountain range, and let me tell you that the height varies average 3,000 meters, and that is between 9,000 to 12,000 feet. The highest peak is 12,000 feet plus. This terrain has got trackless jungles and forested terrain as well, apart from mountains, and the western portion and little northern portion is crisscrossed by rivers, and the maps would be indicating to you that. So, and they got some canal systems. So in any military operation it is not easy to annex the mainland of Taiwan. That's the point which I was making.

Now the next slide I would like to cover. Okay, what are the claims of China? Because you know China, it has got a grand strategy. The grand strategy is to have a vantage point in both the Pacific and Indian Ocean, and for that South China Sea is crucial, because it is the bridge between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Strategic importance of Taiwan emerges from here, because it is critical, both the Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits. It impacts the naval and commercial passage of the shipliners. If China controls both, it would have a stranglehold on the waterways. China's nine-dash line dream would become enforceable. Incidentally, they had eleven dash lines. When PRC came to par, slowly they went to nine.

Now what is its dreams? Its aim is to reclaim full power over Taiwan, in the same way, if I can give another European example, as Austrian Anschluss, that moment in 1938, then a referendum was held and Austria became part of Germany, and that was the first step towards Second World War. So domination by People's Republic of China of South China Sea would become equivalent of something like German militarization of the Rhineland, which started in 1934. And that's what China is seeking. It is seeking revisionism, it is seeking hegemonism.

The United States on the other hand sees Taiwan as a strategic node for projecting its power in East Asia and maintain its influence in Indian Ocean, particularly the eastern Indian Ocean, and the Pacific region. So it seeks freedom of navigation, which is very important. So it carries out joint exercises, it carries out Malabar exercises. And in the present context of China's rise, United States under Trump, Trump has made a statement that they may be revisiting the one China policy. So you see strategic importance. I have not really touched upon the natural resources which are existing, which are well known. Ninety percent of the area South China Sea China claims, which is 3.5 million square kilometers. Oil, gas, fisheries and other food which could be available from the sea resources, they are all there. So China's first step is to come and clear this first line of first island chain, which is showing in the u4. Next slide please.

Now what is it next year? It is China seeks to dominate, established bases in the future to dominate Pacific Ocean by the four island chains. First one I have covered you. Now the second one, the line extending from central Japan through Iwo Jima, Guam and Caroline Islands, joining up Papua New Guinea. Oh this is there, it comes closer to Australia. The third island chain, which is extending from the outer Aleutians, that is Attu and Kiska, south through Wake Islands and through to Marshall Islands, terminating in the Solomon Islands northeast of Australia. Now it is here, you imagine, Solomon Islands have been in news. It has sent some tremors in the western world, to the United States, particularly to Australia. Australia feels if it comes so near, and they are calling this two thousand kilometers distance from Solomon to Australia is near. Just imagine what Japan, Taiwan and South Korea and other Southeast Asian nations are facing from China. It is not only Taiwan.

So I have expanded the scope in explaining the strategic implications of what is to come in the future, and for that India has to be an understudy to cater for its own strategic needs. And like the next four, and the fourth chain is extending from Attack, which is you know south of Alaska, and it comes through to Midway and then into Gilbert's Island. Now Gilbert's Island is six thousand six hundred and seventy kilometers from the Chinese mainland. Next slide please.

I am showing you the reach of Chinese surface-to-air missiles and the cruise missile systems, not only on Taiwan, but it is covering, as you would see if you go to the rightmost, which I said, which will be Gilbert Islands, they can cover with their DF-26 anti-ship ballistic. Besides, China today is able to cover Guam, which is a major United States base, with its H-6K bombers, the range 3,000 kilometers, from Fujian province. So you can see, okay, what is the coverage which China has, not only with its short-range ballistic missiles, integrated ballistic precise, it is the intercontinental ballistic missile as well. Okay, next please.

Now before I come on the visit of Pelosi, I will say this is a very good indicator where China stands in the Taiwanese heartland, and why I'm showing this is because there have been a very extensive three war strategy followed by China, the three W's: psychological, political and legal. Getting into the mind of the people, politically showing what is the actual historical fact, and in that China has been very active to underplay the Taiwanese. But look, from 1992 as the start, it is showing up to 2021. 1992, only about 18 to 20 percent Taiwanese were thinking that they are Taiwanese, but in 2021 over 60 percent Taiwanese now feel we are Taiwanese, is nationalist. So nationalism in Taiwan is on the rise. Then there's an element who considers that we are both Taiwanese and Chinese. Yes, no doubt, because the male population in Taiwan was from the Chinese region. And lastly is those who think who are Chinese. The graph has come down from about 25 percent, I think it's barely two percent or three percent. So its three W strategy as of now, as per the survey, has not been the success which it thinks it should happen. Okay.

So now I'll cover, you can follow the slide. Now I'll come to Pelosi visit. You see, as I told you, it was that moment of 1914. So which America did very well, they put up a facade that both the chairman joint chiefs of staff and the president dissuaded her to visit, but there was a hidden agenda, and we know that, and they did very well. When the tour program was made, Taiwan was not included among the nations she was going: Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and South Korea. But come second August, she landed under high security, very well covered airspace and very well covered the route to Taiwan. And Americans did well, they had compromised the electronic systems of the Chinese during this time, and that is where the American intelligence, which has played such a stellar role in Ukraine, stands out today.

Now this is a very high level delegation, Speaker of the House, the second speaker to visit after 1997. China had made a lot of war cries on this, because there should be no such visit. I think those war cries were not warranted, but not required, because delegations keep coming, and after Pelosi visit also they have had as many as two delegations of America visiting them. One was 12 days after that and one was early September. Then five to eight members of the US Congress have visited, including Republicans, and there have been two governors, of Arizona and Indiana, who have gone to Taiwan very recently, one is I think on seven September. And so that is, on Japan's delegation has come officially. So to that extent Xi Jinping, having made noise to dissuade, has not been successful, but it produced a lot of anger, unprecedented, and it followed military exercises, targeted military operations, and it has brought about a new normal there.

Now the visit is in wake of two major events, I will say, and we are well acquainted with that. One is the midterm elections of the United States itself. Biden post Afghanistan has shown some strength to support Ukraine, perhaps whether it is right or wrong reasons time will tell, but Putin I think will help him to get NATO out of its graveyard, and they have united. And second is the election in China itself, the 20th People's Congress, where Xi Jinping wants to get the third term and get crowned as the red sultan of China for lifetime. Australian Kevin Rudd, the former prime minister, said it is life term. He said that he looks forward to be there till at least 2037. So maybe the astrologers may have predicted that he will be alive and around now.

So it was all basically show of power projection by America in this case. What it has done militarily, it's created a new normal: crossing of the median line. China doesn't recognize the median line anymore. Let me tell you, median line came into force in 1954. There was the air force general Davis who defined it. Earlier it was known as Davis line and now it is the median line, and that no more holds good. The inner territorial waters and the 24 nautical island waters, they've also been compromised. So that is the military action by China. They launched missiles from Fujian and Zhejiang, which went over Taiwan, came into the EEZ of Japan. It was to test the Japanese reaction.

And it is that China has challenged the United States this time, recorded the fourth strait crisis. They have challenged. Why? Because the gap between the military and economic capabilities of two nations has closed considerably. So China is in position to do what they did. In this military drills which they carried out, they practiced anti-access and anti-denial drills for possible ingress by United States forces. They tested Japanese how they would get involved. They carried out aerial refueling exercises. They employed their major air component, and in this one air component, J-20s, which is compared with F-35, did not come out, so they held it back. They carried out, I said, air refueling exercise. Aircraft carrier was also not mobilized. But the strategic support force was activated and very intensive cyber and disinformation campaigns were carried out. So this is the effect of Speaker of the House Pelosi visit.

Now Taiwan on the other hand has increased its military budget. It will do so by 14 percent. It is dropping its house supply and requested for HIMARS to come in, which have played a very major role in the Ukraine war, and HIMARS, 18 of them, would be coming to them, apart from the one billion dollar aid which has come their way.

Now the principal drivers in all this has been, you know, that CCP, where they've done this, is they have to stay in power. They want to have maximum influence, and China has that, therefore stoked high degree of nationalism in their country. And if China ever drops the Taiwan claim, the whole CCP goes down the drain. It will not only be end of Xi Jinping but of CCP. So the name is national rejuvenation in China, and they have achieved that very capably. Economically, what China has done, they have imposed little sanctions. They carried out, rockets, seven zones they covered, and in that, you know, food products including processed foods, which they never done earlier, fresh and all, they banned its import to China. They have banned export of sand to Taiwan, which is a major requirement for semiconductors. So politically, militarily, we have seen what has happened.

And now let me just cover the military angle, after having covered what military actions they have taken, what has been intervened. Just three minutes more. So okay, give me a plus two minutes, request time extension. So now I'll cover, you see, in this entire exercise America has achieved a military aim. Both eastern and southern theater commands of China were activated, so all the blips, all the right techs have been done: how they mobilize, how they carry out mobilization, how they would be undertaking the operation, all their blockade which they have done this time has come to light. So this is perhaps a major advantage which America has come home with. So having covered this, America we know has got the Indo-Pacific command. They got a major force at Guam. They got 55,000 troops in Japan, they got 35,000 troops in Korea. So there's a force in being.

So now what happens to the Indo-Taiwan relation, the Indo-Taiwan and India-China relations? It's a very significant impact which is taking place on our Act East Asia policy. You know, India needs to lift itself now, I feel, from its self-imposed constraints on our Taiwan policy. When Sushma Swaraj became foreign minister she raised the issue of one China policy. Yes, India has accepted that, but then what about one India policy? It's very very important. Our bilateral trade with Taiwan needs to be enlarged, and a few years, about two years back, the survey had said that 20 billion dollars in a couple of years, but we are still far from that.

Now Taiwan, you know, has plans to move its manufacturing bases away from China. Those are our plans. So India and Southeast Asian countries are the destinations. We must grab those opportunities. You know, Taiwan has got lesser population. Population is a problem with them, fertility rate is down. They need skilled workers, and Taiwan being the technological hub of the world, a superpower, we got the skilled power, we must send our people there. We must make use of the universities and research, you know, that's a very major role. And we must exploit the fault lines of China: Hong Kong, Taiwan. The, we don't allow you guys to visit us, we should give them visa to make a visit. It's very important. We must play more. We are now active in Quad, but I feel that we must have a better role, a stronger role. We consider defense alliance even with Japan, we should do that, you know, and boost our engagements in South China Sea. After all, we got five oil rigs there, okay, which three have become active in the Vietnam area. So Vietnam is another powerful player there which keeps very very quiet and neutral. They know how to play the game well, and none of the Southeast Asian nations want to annoy China, and when China gets annoyed, you know, it plays with military drills.

So I think General Mehta has been very kind to me to give me that extra minute, and last one minute I'll take from the commanding officer. It is there another thing, and that is, you know, we must try to consider our parliamentary delegations going to Taiwan. We must try to consider the free trade agreement with Taiwan, and we must consider a policy of engagement and dialogue at mid level of officials with Taiwan. That's very important, because sharing of intelligence and non-traditional threats is very important, and actively activate the exchange on the health ground. Look, Taiwan achieved so much in the COVID times. So I mean I have covered a few things, I may have left out some in my thought process.

Lastly I would say, if there's a war, if there's a war, there are two options only. Firstly, wisdom of China, which is a wise nation, hundred years planning by Mao Zedong. Option one, it'll be a cardinal sin, it'll be a folly if they go to war, but there are two options. One is carry out maritime action, that is blockades, use your submarines, and that has got, made it right, major American at least show of force. And option two will be the broader sub-regional war, in which the missile warfare, the air warfare and all will come very active.

Having said that, without trying to sum up, which I leave to General Deepak Mehta, but we have covered out all the aspects, and basically they sum up that we have to watch out for China. We have to watch out for China on our northern borders, that is very important, please. Yesterday's news that they have withdrawn from PP-15, the Gogra line, but let me tell you, it is because of Taiwan, that pressure which is there. They are trying to play into Indian minds, or they are withdrawing. What is this withdrawal, when they come up with permanent infrastructure? They made containment like infrastructures there, permanent emplacements. So this is just again putting power in the eye. So with that, for India, we must build a comprehensive national power, economically, and for that they are doing very well, leaning both to America and the West and maintaining a balance with Russia, and I think that should take India forward. And Taiwan, I feel there will be no war, and it will linger on like this. Taiwan is left with I think only 14 days gas reserve and about 140 days of oil reserve in the present blockade. So the major stakes for them, and US will have to come and support them. Thank you very much for kind extension of time, General Deepak Mehta. Thanks.

Very well, very well done. Any questions by anyone please? So now I have a question for you, sir. You know, you spoke about the China policy. There's something wrong with China principle, the also between China principle and China policy in relation to Taiwan.

It's a very good question, Deepak, but I think this is the first time I'm incurring of having extended the time and you shooting this question. You see, both are not the same. One China policy is what America advocates, and one China principle is what China advocates, right? And China, you know, it's very clear, principle, you know, we have studied physics, the laws and all, so when it is a principle, it's a law, it's a legal tenet in that. So China's one principle is that Taiwan is the legal part of People's Republic of China, notwithstanding that People's Republic of China has never ruled or covered Taiwan. It was Republic of China, Chiang Kai-shek. But it is their sense of history. We can call it manufactured sense of history, we can say deep study of history, where they claim on it is there.

On the other hand, the one China policy, this is where the twist is, and this is where, you know, the calligraphy is with the artist and twisting the words is with the diplomat, and this is what they have done. The one China calls it contains more elements. For example, US interest is in a peaceful process of cross-strait resolution. They go by the three communiques, 72, 79, 82, which China also does, but the interpretations are different. You see, in 1982, when it was basically to say, okay, you know, we are together and all our diplomatic relations, cultural relations are well, dweller, America, Ronald Reagan, that term the president, he had a note in which there were six assurances shared with Taiwan. They were shared in the Congress later. And these six assurances told that one, because they had their diplomatic relations in 1979, and Chinese interpreted now one China principle is in vogue. But China said in 1972, when the relations were being established, the first communique came, that China said accepts one China, what America said, acknowledge. So this is the first jargon which is in playground. America says we acknowledge one China but we don't accept. China says accept, but America says acknowledge. So look at the difference, how we can be very particular with words.

Now second is, so these six assurances told in 1982 to Taiwan that arm sales will continue. That was known to China also, but see, it said, and China was conveyed, that arm's sale will depend upon the contingency of how much coercion China carries out, how much threat it brings about to bear on Taiwan. So that was one flexibility, and they assured them in the six assurances number of other points which were there. They will continue to be with you in all spheres. Usually they established an American institute there, AIT. For all practical purposes it's an NGO, but it is like an embassy in Taiwan. So that is the difference.

Now would you like me to continue a little more? If I can just mention something more, because I just want to, you see, the Taiwan Relations Act. Taiwan Relations Act is one more which I wanted to mention, okay, by which the defense pact is to exist with Taiwan till 1979, and it got replaced by Taiwan Relations Act, and America abides with that. They will provide them defensive weapons. But now shifting strategy, 40 plus years having gone back, there's a shift in strategy. So now America is supplying them offensive weapon systems also. You see, same thing with Japan: 70 plus years of that pacifist constitution, there's a change. They are increasing the defense budget, they are going in for long-range missiles. So this one China policy, one by America, and one China principle by China, will remain as it is, and the interpretations will remain as they keep playing diplomatic games. Thank you, sir.

Sorry, request the president to conclude the session for this evening, sir.

Thank you very much. I think the question asked by General Deepak, who initiated the Warsaw intelligence cell in the army during his jacket carrier, he has covered, and he has covered comprehensively, that one side you claim the one China policy and now there is a dichotomy. So this question encompasses many questions, and that has been very competently, very in a scholarly manner, replied by General SVP. I have to thank also the delegates from foreign countries who have joined us today from UK, Belgium, UAE, Singapore. I'm sure these delegates must have enjoyed this session and learned a lot. I'm also thankful to the sponsors of this session, that is Premiership Tax Code and Premium Investigations.

The understanding which was known as 1992 consensus, between the representatives of China Communist Party and Kuomintang, has been thrown to the means. None of these two countries, and by far their supporters, they do not believe in this consensus, and I think 1992 consensus has just become a waste paper. The China's military exercises in the waters around Taiwan show how China is interested in Taiwan and is seen as a wider perspective for China. While principally all the nations accept one China policy, however, as I like to mention one line, there is a very strong dichotomy, there is very strong schism in response, by which these nations are having a relationship with Taiwan without establishing diplomatic relations with Taiwan. So there is a dichotomy as well as this particular policy is concerned.

I will also like to submit that if NISSMAT had to say, I would advise, I want to accept General, as we say, as their principal advisor for all strategies and all action with Taiwan should play. It is a really very very emphatic way he has indicated how Taiwan should act and how the world should go. He has also mentioned in very compact manner what China should be, what India should be doing. We are thankful for a very very learned, very very scholarly presentation today evening, and we're sure that delegates who have attended this session must have learned a lot. As far as I am concerned, I have learned a lot, and I definitely acknowledge that this was a very very comprehensive, and I think he deserved a thumping sort of clap from all of us, an excellent delegation. Thank you very much.

Sir, may I request you sir to allow me to speak a few words, just to thank team NISSMAT, and very special thanks to Inspector General Harjeet Sandhu. Yeah, he's a friend and he's made it a point to be there, and let me tell you, there's a lot to learn from him. He's an authority on the matters where he's dealing. I'm very independent, we'll rob him, we'll open it as one of our associates. I was going to praise him and he in turn has started talking about me. I personally definitely stand enlightened a lot, and it's always good to interact in such sessions, because you always learn something. And as I said in the beginning, for me it is a great honor to see today Mr C Paul Singh, sir, because I have only heard his name, never met him in my service career, neither during CBI days nor Manipur days or later on. But at least today I see him as good as close as it is, as if it is live. So definitely looking forward to interacting more on this. Thank you, sir.

Thank you. Allow me sir, allow me sir to thank Deepak and Pawan also. Thank you, sir. Next webinar is scheduled on 30th September, 6 pm. The subject is workplace ethics, tackling small lapses to avoid company crisis. Workplace ethics, tackling small lapses to avoid company crisis. We have selected this subject from the point of view that many a time very very small lapses result in the loss of my country. We hope to have a very scintillating session there also, and two scholars who are very well versed in the workplace ethics and lapses, and know what are the lapses, shall be addressing this webinar. With these words I again request all the delegates, please note on the date, the 30th, time 6 pm to 7:30, whether two speakers will be there. With these words I close the session and thank all of you having come here and joined us in this interactive session today. Thank you very much, all of you. Thank you.

Thank you, sir. Thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you. To the next one, okay, bye bye. Bye. Also is my subject, so I will definitely be attending next one, okay. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Sir, thank you very much. Thank you, very well conducted, I must say. That's all. I think it will be on the YouTube and you can pass it on to your friends also. They will be available on the YouTube side, okay. Thank you. Thank you, Deepak, a special photo thanks to you, because we had a lot of interaction, and Pawan is the one who initiated me into this. Nice, thank you sir, and I'll get to you on the phone. Thanks, sir. Thank you, bye. Thank you. Okay, but it's so nice, I don't want to leave it, but has to leave the meeting, I understand.