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Profits From War

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Modern wars are about conflicts within conflicts. For the military-industrial complex, the winning formula is to make them last. War profiteering is a global industry. The global arms trade is a prime example of this phenomenon. Despite its many defeats in the post, Second World War era, USA continues to wage wars including proxy wars, which enable its Armament and Energy sectors to flourish.The c

Duration: 49:35Published: March 1, 2023

What this session covered

This session examined who profits from armed conflict. A moderator was joined by two retired Indian Army general officers, both gunners by background. Opening the discussion, the moderator set out the principal channels through which war generates private gain — military contracts, post-war reconstruction, natural-resource exploitation and financial speculation — and noted historical instances of firms supplying both sides of a conflict. One speaker traced the theme back to the colonial extraction of Indian wealth under the East India Company and the British Raj, citing research that put the transfer at 45 trillion dollars over the period 1765 to 1938, and linked the modern version of the phenomenon to armament manufacturers, energy companies and the nexus between defence contractors and politics.

Much of the discussion concerned the United States, which both speakers characterised as having mastered the conversion of conflict into profit, from armament sales through reconstruction and private-security contracting; one speaker argued that economics, trade and even cyberspace have themselves become forms of war. The war in Ukraine served as the running illustration: the losses fall on Ukrainians and Russians, it was observed, while the armament industries supplying both sides gain. The discussion also considered India's indirect benefits from that conflict, including discounted Russian crude refined and re-exported, increased wheat exports, continued access to Russian airspace for Indian carriers, and a strengthened diplomatic position attributed to the country's strategic autonomy.

The closing portion turned to gaps and opportunities for India. The speakers discussed why Indian companies have stayed out of war-zone logistics and reconstruction contracting, attributing the caution largely to the absence of security cover and market intelligence, and suggested closer collaboration with American firms as a remedy. Defence exports were presented as a growing opportunity, with reference to recent overseas sales of Indian systems; one speaker projected Indian defence exports of about 30 billion dollars by 2047. Final remarks touched on the military-industrial complex, profiteering in medicines and oxygen during the Covid pandemic, and an appeal to Indian business to learn to operate in grey-zone environments.

Key points raised

  • The session surveyed the channels through which war generates private profit: armaments, energy, logistics, reconstruction contracting and financial speculation.
  • Both speakers characterised the United States as the foremost example of converting conflict into profit, across armament sales, reconstruction and private-security contracting.
  • One speaker cited research estimating that Britain extracted 45 trillion dollars of India's wealth between 1765 and 1938, presented as a historical antecedent of profiting from conquest.
  • India's indirect gains from the Ukraine conflict were discussed, including discounted Russian crude refined for re-export, higher wheat exports and continued access to Russian airspace for Indian carriers.
  • Indian companies were described as absent from war-zone logistics and reconstruction work, chiefly for want of security cover and market intelligence, with collaboration with American firms suggested as the way in.
  • Defence exports were presented as a national opportunity; one speaker projected Indian defence exports of about 30 billion dollars by 2047.
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