After take over by the Military Junta, Myanmar is witnessing major unrest and violence. On 11th April the Airforce of the Military Junta carried out airstrikes resulting in the death of about 170 people.
What this session covered
This session took the form of a moderated discussion between two panellists on Myanmar's strategic importance to India. The host framed the subject against the unrest that has followed the military takeover, noting India's dual-track approach of engaging the junta while pressing for a return to democracy. The panellists placed Myanmar at the intersection of India's Act East and Neighbourhood First policies — the country's land gateway to South-East Asia, sharing a border of more than 1,600 kilometres with the north-eastern states — and identified insurgency, narcotics trafficking, refugee flows and China's expanding footprint as the principal Indian concerns.
The discussion examined Myanmar's internal fault lines: the unresolved divide between the Bamar Buddhist majority and the ethnic and religious minorities of the border regions, and a military that has cast itself as guardian of national integrity and retains an effective veto over constitutional amendment through its reserved bloc of parliamentary seats. Both panellists were critical of Western sanctions on Myanmar, though they placed their emphasis differently. One argued that India's early refusal to join them, including a line of credit extended to Myanmar, rested on the view that sanctions hurt ordinary people while leaving entrenched regimes unmoved, and that breaking ranks protected Indian interests and opened commercial avenues; the other, offering a slightly different take, stressed that sanctions have minimal effect on the generals on the ground, cost workers their livelihoods, put the wider region at risk and chiefly create space for China. The Rohingya question was discussed largely as an internal-security matter for India, linked to illegal migration, trafficking and the acquisition of identity documents, with the 2017 violence in Rakhine — including attacks on Hindu villages — cited as background.
On China, the discussion covered Beijing's investments in pipelines and transport corridors linking the Bay of Bengal to Yunnan as a response to its dependence on the Malacca Strait, its interest in Myanmar's rare-earth minerals, and its ties to ethnic armed groups. Both panellists, however, cautioned against alarm over reported Chinese activity on the Coco Islands, arguing that Burmese nationalism limits how far any government in Myanmar will accommodate activity detrimental to India. India's countervailing efforts were reviewed — the Kaladan multi-modal transit project, prospective cooperation with Japan and Bangladesh on regional ports, and growing commercial links — alongside Myanmar's cooperation against north-eastern insurgent groups that have historically used its territory as a safe haven. The session closed with calls to treat the north-eastern states individually rather than as a bloc, to bring younger voices into the debate, and to exercise restraint when commenting on sensitive situations such as the recent violence in Manipur.
Key points raised
- The panellists presented Myanmar as central to India's Act East and Neighbourhood First policies — the land gateway to South-East Asia and a direct security factor for the north-eastern states.
- Both panellists were critical of Western sanctions, though with different emphases: one argued that India's decision to break ranks — on the reasoning that sanctions hurt ordinary people while leaving entrenched regimes unmoved — served Indian interests, while the other stressed their minimal effect on the military, the livelihoods lost and the ground ceded to China.
- China's pipeline and corridor investments in Myanmar were discussed as a response to its Malacca Strait dependence, but both panellists cautioned against overstating the threat from reported Chinese activity on the Coco Islands, citing Burmese nationalism.
- The Rohingya issue was treated principally as an internal-security concern for India, tied to illegal migration, trafficking and the acquisition of identity documents.
- Myanmar's cooperation was described as important to containing north-eastern insurgent groups that have long used its territory for shelter, training routes and arms movement.
- Closing remarks urged more informed engagement with the Northeast: treating its states individually, involving younger analysts, and restraint in commenting on volatile situations such as Manipur.
